Spartans Put 3rd Longest Win Streak on the Line vs Nittany Lions

 (Wednesday, 1/15 at 7:30pm on Big Ten Network)

November 26th, 2024, or 50 days. That is how long since now #12 MSU last fell in Maui to the Memphis Tigers. Wednesday night, the Breslin Center and Izzone will be in full force as Coach Izzo and his staff prepares his team to take aim at their 10th straight win against PSU, with a large home date vs. Illinois upcoming on Sunday. Let’s take a dive into the matchup.

Checking in this week at #12 📈 pic.twitter.com/y9UlDussCu

— Michigan State Men’s Basketball (@MSU_Basketball) January 13, 2025

The Penn State Nittany Lions (12-5, 2-4 Big Ten) have found themselves amongst a 3-game slide (ORE, ILL and IU), but against some of the best competition they’ve seen all season. That’s not saying much with a rather weak non-conference SOS (Binghamton, UMBC, St Francis PA, VaTech, Purdue FW, Fordham, Buffalo, Coppin St, Drexel and Penn) losing to only Clemson. While some metrics seem to indicate they could give MSU a fight, the deeper analytics strongly suggest a setup for another convincing win for MSU.

Tale of the Tape:

Head Coach Mike Rhoades is in his second year as PSU’s head honcho, departing from VCU in March of 2023 signing a 7-year deal. Rhoades brings a 389-206 record (.654 win %) into the matchup. He is two wins away from matching last year’s total (16) and certainly an improved team.

As far as the current roster, Coach Rhoades relies heavily on a 7–8-man rotation including a pair of starters averaging 30+ minutes, 5 at 22+ mpg and a pair of players between 12-16 mpg. Leading the scoring charge is (Sr-G) Ace Baldwin Jr (2024- A10 DPOY) who followed Rhoades from VCU at 13.9 ppg (94% FT), 8.0 assists, 2.0 steals, but also 3.7 turnovers as well, (Sr-G) Nick Kearns Jr. at 12.7 ppg (60.4% FG, 74.2% FT), 4.9 reb, 2.3 assists, 1.4 steals, (Sr-F) Zach Hicks 12.2 ppg (48.6 FG%, 76.2% FT, 42.4% 3-pt), 4.8 reb, and 2.2 assists, (Jr-F) Yanic Niederhauser with 12.1 ppg, 6.6 reb, (60.6% FG), (Sr-G) Puff Johnson 10.6 ppg (54.9% FG, 81% FTs), 4.6 reb, 1.4 steals with (So-G) Freddie Dilione rounding out the double digit scorers coming in at 10.4 ppg (45.2% FG, 30.9% 3-pt), 2.8 reb, 1.8 assists.

Can’t wait to be back home with @ThisistheIZZONE 🙌🙌 pic.twitter.com/zDCvFJjlpB

— Michigan State Men’s Basketball (@MSU_Basketball) January 14, 2025

MSU Gameplan:

MSU will look to control the tempo and slow things down. PSU has taken advantage of below average teams and ran up the points total, but recently have struggled against Illinois (52, in a 39-point loss), Indiana (71, losing by 6) and in their last match, fought back from down 15+ to Oregon, just to relinquish a decent lead late, in regulation 81-82.

The Spartans can run with the bulls in transition or rely on their 34th ranked 2-pt shooting % while flipping the defensive side, to a respectable 43rd ranked 2-pt Def % that matches up against PSU’s 2-pt % ranking 48th. PSU will try and swipe some turnovers as they rank 70th at 15.9 as MSU averages 17.5 (174th) turnovers to generate extra possessions and perhaps get MSU into some foul trouble as PSU checks-in 84th in FT rate while MSU is 113th on defensive FT rate but is 47th on their own FT rate taken. Neither team ranks inside the top 300 in 3-pt rate, but MSU owns the 15th 3-pt defensive rate. Spartans own a sizeable rebounding margin with a stellar 21st rank in Effective FG defensive % compared to PSU’s 59th Effective FG % on offense and have a moderate FT edge as well.

With a few players shorter of a regular rotation to MSU, the Nittany Lions have their work cut-out for them. Despite having a faster tempo, the starters play heavier minutes so any combination of foul trouble to key players and/or exhaustion play right into Coach Izzo’s hands to manage the personnel to create the best matchups. If PSU allows the fastbreak early, the guards for MSU could push an early lead; if not, I see more of the inside-out approach that has been a staple of offensive consistency and sharing the scoring love. Look for Xavier Booker and Coen Carr to bounce back hitting open 3’s and sky-high dunks with Jaxon Kohler, Carson Cooper and Szymon Zapala to roam the paint for blocks and clean up the rebounds. This will be the toughest defense PSU faces, and regression indicators are flashing in regard to their 84+ ppg average against an elite defense and Izzo will have this squad focused on the team at-hand in his, “Strength in Numbers,” theme for this season.

INSIDE THE RANKINGS:

#12 AP /#12 Coaches 1/13 — Up from #16/#14 (14-2, T-1st Big Ten 5-0)

KenPom: 14th (+2) // Bart Torvik: 15th (+9). // KPI: 16th

Updated KenPom- Off: 24th (+9), Def: 11th (+/- 0). AdjT: 136th (+19). SOS Net Rtg: 39th (+12) +5.65

Other Metrics: ESPN SoR (10th), ESPN BPI (16th).

FULL KenPom Stats: https://kenpom.com/index.php

FULL Bart Torvik Stats: https://barttorvik.com/#

FULL T-Rank Stats: https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2025/net-teamsheets-plus#google_vignette